Heisman Handicap Week 9

Kenneth Walker III enters the race as a serious candidate for the Heisman and other thoughts from the weekend.

To start, an apology for this being a day late, when you have a chance to see your team play in the World Series for the first time in 22 years you kinda have to take it so I was out of pocket most of the weekend, but the ever-changing Heisman market remains really interesting so let’s dive in.

The big winner this week is undoubtedly Kenneth Walker III from Michigan State. Walker was astonishing in Michigan State’s massive, upset win against arch rival Michigan. Walker ran for 197 yards and five touchdowns in the 37–33 Spartans win. Walker now has the signature performance to match his spectacular statistical output. Walker leads the country in yards per game by a nearly 8.5 yard margin over the second place rusher, Syracuse’s Sean Tucker (149.2 to 140.7). Walker’s 14 rushing touchdowns are tied for third most in the nation. As a result of his performance this weekend he’s jumped from +2000 to +450 to win the Heisman which ties him with CJ Stroud for the second best odds behind Bryce Young who was on a bye this week. I’m still skeptical a running back is going to win the Heisman and Walker will play what should basically amount to a Heisman eliminator game on November 20th against Ohio State. Winning on the road is going to be a tall task for the Spartans, but if Walker stars in a win, it’s hard to imagine him not vaulting to the top of the odds.

Saturday was an interesting game for Stroud. He was really good against Penn State throwing for 305 yards and a touchdown but everyone in the country was overshadowed by Walker and Stroud was even possibly overshadowed by his own teammate TreVeyon Henderson who had 152 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Penn State. Henderson was a guy who emerged as a darkhorse early in the season, but Stroud became the story for the Ohio State offense the past few weeks. Now Henderson reminded people he’s really good too. It’s not enough to put him in the race, but may be enough to make voters skeptical of Stroud compared to someone who carries more of the offensive statistical responsibility like, say, Caleb Williams.

Williams’ odds were halved this week as he went from +1600 to +800 after a 402 yard, six touchdown performance against Texas Tech. The Tech defense stinks out loud and their coach got fired in the middle of the week, but Heisman voters love stats so Williams’ night is sure to impress them. Oklahoma is off this week, but they close the year at Baylor, home against Iowa State and on the road at Oklahoma State. It’s a sweet spot for Williams because those are the second, third and fourth best teams in the Big 12 in some order, but realistically none of them should be able to beat Oklahoma who is once again a cut above the rest of the league. Williams will still see one of those teams a second time which I think may hurt him compared to Young, Stroud or even Walker, but if he keeps putting up numbers he’s going to keep getting steam.

Saturday featured the likely exit from the Heisman race for two candidates. As quickly as Kenny Pickett entered the race, he probably exited it. Pickett did throw for over 500 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw two picks and Pitt lost to a mediocre Miami team. If Pitt and Pickett run the table and he keeps putting up insane stats I think he can get an invite to the ceremony, but it’s hard to imagine him winning it. Matt Corral has been one of the favorites most of the season, but I wrote last week like I felt like his chances had peaked and that appears to be the case after Ole Miss’ loss to Auburn. Corral was a warrior battling through injuries and did put up 334 yards of offense and a touchdown, but this is a banged up player on a banged up team, but they’re going to have to run the table for him to have a shot and it may still not be enough. He’s down to the fourth favorite and I’d expect Williams to pass him soon.

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